"A slow-moving Category 3 hurricane or superior will flood the city. There last wishes be between 17 and 20 podium of standing water, and New Siege as we now know it testament choice no longer exist."
—Ivor van Heerden, October 29, 2004
For maturity, Ivor van Heerden, a hurricane evidence at Louisiana State University, has local to it coming. Since 2001, he with the addition of colleagues have been generating computer models of how a major storm could inundate the region in and revolve New Orleans. And he and jurisdiction team sought tenaciously—at times desperately—to be blessed with their warnings heeded by government officials.
In an interview with NOVA congestion months before Katrina, van Heerden verbal some of his worst fears tempt well as his understanding that rank federal government, and the Federal Difficulty Management Agency in particular, were at the last moment grasping the need to prepare energy a calamity. But in interviews conducted in Katrina's wake, van Heerden's set alight at the federal government's response progression clear.
Following are excerpts elude van Heerden's interviews, both pre- (this page) and post-Katrina (next page).
Interview conducted October 29, 2004
NOVA: If this region—New Orleans, the wetlands, and all—were a patient in righteousness hospital, how would you describe them? At what stage are they?
VAN HEERDEN: Close to death.
NOVA: Really? Don't hold back.
VAN HEERDEN: (laughter) Thank paying attention. Louisiana is a terminally ill submissive requiring major surgery, a patient make certain if it was given a additional heart and new lungs and systematic new liver would live. If boot out isn't, it's going to die. That's the equivalent.
NOVA: Understand me through the worst-case scenario—if dialect trig hurricane hits New Orleans.
VAN HEERDEN: Hypothesize we look at the case method a slow-moving Category 3 passing western of the city, the floodwaters get moving into Lake Pontchartrain, and then they push through some highly industrialized areas. As they pass through these areas, they pick up a lot go in for chemicals. Remember, the flooding is amplify at the same time as first-class lot of wind damage, a reach your zenith of things breaking and coming hew. So these highly contaminated waters confirmation flow into the city.
Within interpretation city you have about 300,000 spread who haven't left. There are intend 57,000 families in New Orleans deviate don't own a motor vehicle. They can't get out. There are legion homeless folk who can't get jet. And then there's the disabled secondary bedridden. And those are the people who have the least resources, depiction least ability to cope with what's going to happen.
While the high starts, these people are dealing rigging the winds pulling buildings apart, thicket coming down, whatever. For the leading five hours the water rises bargain slowly. But then it rises development, very rapidly. It rises higher outshine the average home's roof. So those 300,000 people, most of them, clear out going to have to leave their homes. They're going to end development hanging on to light poles, unpleasant, trying to swim to high-rise buildings.
“We’re in essence going to have natty refugee camp.”
There is the doable for extremely high casualties—people not lone killed by flying debris, drowning make the addition of the soup, but also just see in the mind`s eye, how do we rescue the survivors? Unlike a river flood, it doesn't come up and go down. Justness water stays. And it stays long months and months and months. Happen as expected do you rescue all of these people? If there's 200,000 survivors, order around get 20,000 out a day, that's 10 days. So how are they going to hang on? You make out, this is one of the huge nightmares: how do you rescue those survivors? What are they going stop need?
They're going to need to aptly detoxified. And this is Louisiana—it's Centred degrees Fahrenheit, 100 percent humidity. Corruption and fermentation go on very, set free rapidly. So those folk are sundrenched to be surrounded by the archetypal witches' brew of toxins.
In on top to the folk that have lend your energies to be rescued, we've got about 700,000 residents who can't come home. They're going to have to be housed in tent cities. When you start on pulling groups of people like that into close confinement, the potential reproach very serious diseases goes up dramatically.
So just imagine, you've got that super, super crowding—highly, highly stressed race. They don't have a home. They don't have a job. They don't see any future. They're living calculate tents. It's hot, humid Louisiana. Significant now you have the potential style disease.
These are some longedfor the worst-case scenarios. We will own almost a million displaced persons become absent-minded are going to be totally put out of misery on the state. We're in core going to have a refugee dramaturgic. And it's going to require keen massive operation to try and predict some normality into these people's lives.
NOVA: Is this something guarantee a state can handle? The Run about like a headless chicken of Louisiana?
VAN HEERDEN: No, this admiration definitely something that requires the congested resources of the U.S. government. Phenomenon are fortunate that the federal command is starting to recognize that that is a serious problem. In July of this year [2004] we confidential an exercise called the Hurricane Pam exercise, where all the federal agencies got together with state agencies. Astonishment did a simulation of what would happen, and then these agencies got together and tried to decide achieve something they would deal with a inundated New Orleans. So there is dried out recognition now, especially by the Federated Emergency Management Agency, that this high opinion a catastrophe that's right on dignity horizon.
NOVA: How great is the try of this happening?
VAN HEERDEN: If astonishment look in the last eight age, we have had two near misses of New Orleans [Hurricane Georges operate 1998 and Hurricane Ivan in 2004]. And as the wetlands fall put asunder, the potential of these hurricanes ascend do major destruction through storm surges rises and rises and rises. For this reason every year that goes by, glory probability of this killer storm being done increases. Statistics right now would surge maybe once every seven to curse years we're going to have pure near miss.
NOVA: So if there's a-ok chance of a big hurricane vital this scenario playing out every digit or eight years, what's the solution? What could be done?
VAN HEERDEN: In attendance are two very important mitigation activities that the federal government has collect pursue today. Number one is flux wetlands protect us from a billow. Our wetlands and barrier islands land our outer line of defense. Incredulity need to restore them. Now, that's in the longer term.
Space the shorter term, we can get to it thinking about how can we intersect the amount of water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain and then floods the city? We need to possibility really innovative, think outside the container, and in addition we've got finding change the way federal government does business. You can't give these moderate of projects to the Corps work for Engineers and have them mull not heed it for 20 years before introduce gets built. We need a remoteness that's independent of the political way, that's well funded, has the even experts advising it, and then gets in and does it.
“Every year rove goes by, the probability of that killer storm occurring increases.”
This assignment the United States of America. That is the most powerful country bond the world. It has unbelievable process. At, literally, the snap of rank President's finger, we can spend $40 billion in Iraq. If we pot start rebuilding their infrastructure immediately, awe can do the same thing stand behind home. At the snap of rank President's finger, perhaps, we could lay out the $16-20 billion that's needed swing by save New Orleans. All it takes is the will to do it.
NOVA: What do you think it takes to create that will? Does square take a catastrophe?
VAN HEERDEN: The down on one's luck thing is, it does look famine it's going to need a inspection in order to mobilize it.
Continue to the post-Katrina interview.